Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Tauranga's Population Projections

A few days ago I did a post on Tauranga's population from the 2013 Census. You can view that post here. Today we will see what would Tauranga's population be in the year 2031 using current population information. I will then compare that to the current projections. Let's get into it.

Tauranga's Population in The Past
Firstly let's start at 1945. Why? Because from 1945 to 1963 Tauranga grew fom a small town to a city. Chairman of SmartGrowth Bill Wasley says that in 1945 Tauranga was a small fishing town with 4000 occupants. But radical change saw that small town grow into a small city in 1963. After that Tauranga's port expanded and Mount Maunganui became tourist destination, things really started to boom. In the past 20 years Tauranga's population almost doubled with the merging with "The Mount". That leads us to part two.
An old photo of "The Mount".

Tauranga's Smartgrowth Projections
Smartgrowth is Tauranga's own plan to keep up with it's population growth. They also project Tauranga's population. Let's see if they are very accurate or just terrible predictors.

Lowest Population(2031):
Medium Population(2031):
Highest Population(2031):

They projected this when they estimated the population was 115,000 in 2012. The 2013 Census says Tsuranga's population was 114789, quite different estimates. This brings us to our final part, My Population Projections.

My Population Projections
Looking at those I believe the lowest population for 2031 is most likely. But let's see my projections.

From the 2006 Census to the 2013 Census, Tauranga's population increased by 11,000 people. From 2013 to 2031 there are 18 years. Therefore at this rate Tauranga's population would be a 140489 which is slightly higher than the lowest projection by Smartgrowth. Below are some projections by me.


Lowest-136000, 140489
Medium-151900, 145620
Highest-168400, 153400

As you can see I am very conservative with population projections. The furst one was at 10000 people every seven years, the second is 12,000 every seven years and the last one is 15,000 people every seven years.

That's the end of this massive post, it leaves you to decide which projection will come out as the "winner". Please +1 to encourage me to post.